About
I've been building things since I was 18, when I started my own company coding website for SMEs in my hometown in Germany. Statistics and data have been a constant since then - I've always loved working with numbers and finding patterns in them. Over time, I realized I wanted to use that skill somewhere it could do real good, not just generate profit. That's what brought me to the European Commission, where I work as an economic analyst in the Chief Economist Unit of DG BUDG, and to teaching the political economy of common debt in the EU at the Hertie School. My work centers on European fiscal policy, political economy, and applying econometrics to these very topics.
I built this website together with Claude Code. All views expressed here are my own.
At the European Commission I work in the Chief Economist team of DG BUDG, strengthening the econometric evidence base on the EU budget together with the Joint Research Centre to inform decision-makers ahead of the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Previously, in the Ukraine Directorate of DG ENEST, I coordinated the G7+ Energy Group for Ukraine, led economic analysis on energy-sector state-owned enterprises, the impact of CBAM on Ukraine's industry, and public debt and inflation, and was responsible for the energy and climate reforms of the Ukraine Facility as well as the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment with the World Bank. Before that, I worked on the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) in the Secretariat General, handling the country plans of Estonia and Belgium and coordinating REPowerEU negotiations.
Alongside the Commission, I teach a graduate seminar at the Hertie School on the political economy of common debt in the EU, the future of the MFF, and diverging productivity regimes across the Union — co-taught with Johannes Lindner of the Jacques Delors Centre. This class combines policy making with data science, namely by deploying econometrics to topics such as the common issuance of debt. I hold a dual master's degree from the London School of Economics (MPA) and the Hertie School (MPP), and I am an alumnus and fellow of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
Publications
Academic Publications
Policy Papers
Teaching
since Feb 2025
Common debt in the EU and the RRF/Ukraine Facility, the future of the MFF, EU bonds and the case for a European safe asset, and diverging productivity regimes across the Union.
Foundation
Projects & Initiatives
Friends of Medyka
An NGO supported refugees at the Polish–Ukrainian border, organising shelter logistics and onward transport to Western Europe.
#HackingCorona
A civic-tech campaign mobilised individuals, companies, and researchers to donate spare computing power to Folding@Home, accelerating COVID-19 protein research.
Curriculum Vitae
Experience
Strengthening the econometric evidence base on the EU budget with the Joint Research Centre, informing decision-makers for the next MFF.
Coordinated the G7+ Energy Group for Ukraine; economic analysis on energy-sector SOEs, CBAM impact, public debt and inflation; led the energy & climate reforms of the Ukraine Facility and the Ukraine RDNA with the World Bank.
Energy and climate investments; responsible for the country plans of Estonia and Belgium; coordinated REPowerEU negotiations with Member States.
Education
Econometrics (DiD, IV, RDD, RCTs, OLS, synthetic control), labour economics, economics of European monetary integration, applied machine learning. Capstone project with the EBRD.
International political economy and competition policy; project course with DG Competition on detecting market dominance in the digital sector — final paper selected for publication.
Awards & Certificates
Contact
I'm based in Brussels. Best reached by email at vwinterhager@pm.me, or connect with me on LinkedIn.